Metatrends
From Horizon Project
[edit] After Five Years: The Metatrends
This is the fifth edition of the Horizon Report, and it seems appropriate after five years to reflect on the sorts of patterns in the recent evolution of emerging technology that can only be seen over time. After five years, it is clear that the 175 people who have served on the Horizon Project Advisory Boards over that time have been remarkably prescient—without exception, the topics in the past five Horizon Reports have proved to be worthy of our attention.
At the same time, we have seen many of the technologies and practices highlighted in this series converge, morph, and shift over the years, evolving in ways that continue to keep them in our sights as they move to nearer and nearer adoption horizons. Some of them have already become quite commonplace and are integrated into our everyday activities; others are clearly still with us, their current form influenced by parallel developments that are pushing them in one direction or another.
While the currents and eddies of emerging technology are complex, it is clear that the Report has been following at least seven metatrends with some regularity:
- communication between humans and machines tags: hzmeta + humanmachine
- the collective sharing and generation of knowledge tags: hzmeta + collectiveknowledge
- games as pedagogical platforms tags: hzmeta + games
- computing in three dimensions tags: hzmeta + 3d
- connecting people via the network tags: hzmeta + connectingpeople
- the shifting of content production to users tags: hzmeta + user_content
- the evolution of a ubiquitous platform tags: hzmeta + ubiquitousplatform
This is our analysis, but we are interested for our readers to weigh in on these metatrends by commenting on the pages above. You can also help out by tagging any relevant resources in del.ico.us with the new tag hzmeta and the trend specific tag listed above.
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We also look back to past Horizon Reports to ask "Where are they now?"
Where Are They Now? .... | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Metatrends
[edit] Horizon Report Archives
2009 Horizon Report http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2009
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
2008 Horizon Report http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2008
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
2007 Horizon Report http://www.nmc.org/horizon/2007/report
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
2006 Horizon Report
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Social Computing
- Personal Broadcasting
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- The Phones in Their Pockets
- Educational Gaming
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
- Augmented Reality and Enhanced Visualization
- Context-Aware Environments and Devices
2005 Horizon Report
- Near Term: Mainsteam campus use within a year.
- Extended Learning
- Ubiquitous Wireless
- Mid-Term: Mainsteam campus use within one to three years.
- Intelligent Searching
- Educational Gaming
- Long Term: Mainsteam campus use within three to five year
- Social Networks and Knowledge Webs
- Context-Aware Computing/Augmented Reality
2004 Horizon Report
- Near Term: Mainsteam campus use within a year.
- Learning Objects
- Scalable Vector Graphics
- Mid-Term: Mainsteam campus use within one to three years.
- Rapid Prototyping
- Multimodal Interfaces
- Long Term: Mainsteam campus use within three to five year
- Context-Aware Computing
- Knowledge Webs
