Metatrends
From Horizon Project
[edit] After Five Years: The Metatrends
This is the fifth edition of the Horizon Report, and it seems appropriate after five years to reflect on the sorts of patterns in the recent evolution of emerging technology that can only be seen over time. After five years, it is clear that the 175 people who have served on the Horizon Project Advisory Boards over that time have been remarkably prescient—without exception, the topics in the past five Horizon Reports have proved to be worthy of our attention.
At the same time, we have seen many of the technologies and practices highlighted in this series converge, morph, and shift over the years, evolving in ways that continue to keep them in our sights as they move to nearer and nearer adoption horizons. Some of them have already become quite commonplace and are integrated into our everyday activities; others are clearly still with us, their current form influenced by parallel developments that are pushing them in one direction or another.
While the currents and eddies of emerging technology are complex, it is clear that the Report has been following at least seven metatrends with some regularity:
- communication between humans and machines tags: hzmeta + humanmachine
- the collective sharing and generation of knowledge tags: hzmeta + collectiveknowledge
- games as pedagogical platforms tags: hzmeta + games
- computing in three dimensions tags: hzmeta + 3d
- connecting people via the network tags: hzmeta + connectingpeople
- the shifting of content production to users tags: hzmeta + user_content
- the evolution of a ubiquitous platform tags: hzmeta + ubiquitousplatform
This is our analysis, but we are interested for our readers to weigh in on these metatrends by commenting on the pages above. You can also help out by tagging any relevant resources in del.ico.us with the new tag hzmeta and the trend specific tag listed above.
[edit] Sites Recently Tagged with hzmeta 
- WebSlides - Turning bookmarks and feeds into interactive slideshows?
I am using this feature at NECC quite a bit - you can turn bookmarks into webslides. It is very useful and helpful! - Gadgets, Games, and Gizmos for Learning
- Our trend map for 2009: The vital Trends, Risks, and Red Herrings you must know - Trends in the Living Networks
Following our extremely popular Trend Blend 2007 and Trend Blend 2008 trend maps comes?. Trend Blend 2009! Created by Future Exploration Network?s Chief Futurist Richard Watson, also of NowandNext.com, the 2009 trend map moves on from the subway map theme of the last years to show the multi-tentacled hydra that is the year ahead. - Not playing around: Army to invest $50M in combat training games | Stars and Stripes
The Army has created a video game unit and will invest $50 million over five years on games and gaming systems designed to prepare soldiers for combat. Lt. Col. Gary Stephens, product manager for air and ground tactical trainers at Project Executive Office ? Simulation Training and Instrumentation said Thursday that the $50 million has been approved for a "games for training" program starting in 2010. "The Army takes this seriously," - CNN quakes as Twitter rapid fires Mumbai news » VentureBeat
It?s one thing when a couple dozen or so tech blogs rally around the idea that Twitter is an excellent source for the quick dissemination of news in the time of crisis ? many of us have been trumpeting this fact for months if not longer ? but its another when CNN (and not one of CNN?s blogs, CNN proper) says the same thing. One of the top headlines today on CNN.com is titled ?Tweeting the terror: How social media reacted to Mumbai.? The opening sentence of the piece is even more to the point, ?It was the day social media appeared to come of age and signaled itself as a news gathering force to be reckoned with.? - IBM Press room - 2008-11-25 IBM Reveals Five Innovations That Will Change Our Lives in the Next Five Years - United States
Unveiled today, the third annual "IBM Next Five in Five" is a list of innovations that have the potential to change the way people work, live and play over the next five years: * Energy saving solar technology will be built into asphalt, paint and windows * You will have a crystal ball for your health * You will talk to the Web . . . and the Web will talk back * You will have your own digital shopping assistants * Forgetting will become a distant memory The Next Five in Five is based on market and societal trends expected to transform our lives, as well as emerging technologies from IBM?s Labs around the world that can make these innovations possible. - IBM: Talking Web Will be Commonplace in 5 Years - ReadWriteWeb
Every year IBM releases a "Next Five in Five" list, a list of innovations that "have the potential to change the way people work, live and play over the next five years". This is the third such list, and it mentions a "Talking Web" among the 5 items. You will talk to the Web and the Web will talk back, according to IBM. In the future "you will be able to surf the Internet, hands-free, by using your voice - therefore eliminating the need for visuals or keypads." - Handheld Devices for Ubiquitous Learning Project Summary
The Handheld Devices for Ubiquitous Learning (HDUL) project, funded by Harvard?s Provost and under the guidance of Professor Chris Dede, sought to determine how wireless handheld devices (WHDs) ?? which include, but are not limited to, cellphones, personal digital assistants, and mobile gaming devices ?? could enhance learning and teaching in university settings. During the 2003?2004 and 2004?2005 academic years, HDUL successfully integrated WHDs into eight diverse courses at the Harvard Graduate School of Education (HGSE) and the Harvard Extension School (HES). This website documents the support materials and publications developed from the project. - a shel of my former self: Comments
A utopian vision has emerged in which every expression of human endeavor once conveyed via physical media is transformed into digital media. Micro Persuasion blogger Steve Rubel, a vice president at Edelman, has bet that ?by January 2014...in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct.? Steve lists print?books, magazines and newspapers?but also DVDs, boxed software, and video games. - Nielsen - Press Release: Americans Can?t Get Enough Of Their Screen Time
The Nielsen Company announced today in its second ?A2/M2 Three Screen Report? that U.S. usage of TV, Internet and Mobile ? the Three Screens ? continues to increase. As of third quarter 2008, the average person in the U.S. watched approximately 142 hours of TV in one month. In addition, people who used the Internet were online 27 hours a month, and people who used a mobile phone spent 3 hours a month watching mobile video
We also look back to past Horizon Reports to ask "Where are they now?"
Where Are They Now? .... | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Metatrends
[edit] Horizon Report Archives
NMC Horizon Report 2009 Download (357k PDF)
2009 Horizon Report http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2009
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
NMC Horizon Report 2008 Download (256k PDF)
2008 Horizon Report http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2008
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
NMC Horizon Report 2007 Download (288k PDF)
2007 Horizon Report http://www.nmc.org/horizon/2007/report
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
NMC Horizon Report 2006 Download (552k PDF)
2006 Horizon Report
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Social Computing
- Personal Broadcasting
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- The Phones in Their Pockets
- Educational Gaming
- Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
- Augmented Reality and Enhanced Visualization
- Context-Aware Environments and Devices
NMC Horizon Report 2005 Download (400k PDF)
2005 Horizon Report
- Near Term: Mainsteam campus use within a year.
- Extended Learning
- Ubiquitous Wireless
- Mid-Term: Mainsteam campus use within one to three years.
- Intelligent Searching
- Educational Gaming
- Long Term: Mainsteam campus use within three to five year
- Social Networks and Knowledge Webs
- Context-Aware Computing/Augmented Reality
NMC Horizon Report 2004 Download (562k PDF)
2004 Horizon Report
- Near Term: Mainsteam campus use within a year.
- Learning Objects
- Scalable Vector Graphics
- Mid-Term: Mainsteam campus use within one to three years.
- Rapid Prototyping
- Multimodal Interfaces
- Long Term: Mainsteam campus use within three to five year
- Context-Aware Computing
- Knowledge Webs
